Short and Long Run Uncertainty Short and Long Run Uncertainty

Uncertainty appears to have both a short-run and a long-run component, which we measure using rm and macro implied volatility data from options of 30 days to 10 years duration. We ask what may be driving uncertainty over these di erent time horizons, nding that oil price volatility is particularly important for short-run uncertainty, policy uncertainty is particularly important for long-run uncertainty, while currency volatility and CEO turnover appear to equally impact shortand long-run uncertainty. Examining a panel of over 4,000 rms from 1996 to 2013 we nd that R&D is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than investment, and in turn investment is relatively more sensitive to long-run uncertainty than hiring. In a simulation model we investigate the channels underlying this pecking-order response to long-run uncertainty, and show that lower depreciation rates and higher adjustment costs lead R&D and investment to be more sensitive to longer-run uncertainty than hiring. Collectively, these results suggest that recent events that have raised long-run policy uncertainty may be particularly damaging to growth by reducing R&D and investment. Acknowledgments: We thank participants at numerous seminars for helpful comments. We thank the National Science Foundation, Sloan Foundation and SIEPR for providing generous research support. Disclaimer: This paper was written in Ian Wright's individual capacity and is not related to his role at Goldman Sachs. The analysis, content and conclusions set forth in this paper are those of the authors alone and not of Goldman Sachs & Co. or any of its a liate companies. The authors alone are responsible for the content.